Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 4, 26, 1:16 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward.
- Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".
- Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included.
- Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.
- Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.
