Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore July 2027 83.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 25, 2:11 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 2:07 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKalshi generally available to UK customers by when?
Manifold MarketsPolymarket generally available to UK customers by when?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date when Waymo officially launches a fully driverless (no human safety driver present) public ride-hailing service in London.
- The service must be generally available to the public for booking rides via the Waymo app or a confirmed partner application.
- The resolution will be based on an official announcement from Waymo (e.g., on its official blog or press releases) or a definitive statement from the UK Department for Transport (DfT) or Transport for London (TfL) confirming the commercial availability of such a service.
- Evidence of availability will include the ability for the general public to request and complete rides without a human safety driver in the vehicle.
- The mere commencement of testing with or without safety drivers, or limited pilot programs not generally available to the public, will not be sufficient for resolution.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $69,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.3pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+4.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-1.7pt9.9%
- Google-0.2pt2%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+7.5pt55.9%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.3%
- 90-114+1.9pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Waymo generally available in London when??
- Manifold Markets prices Before July 2027 at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Waymo generally available in London when? resolve?
- Waymo generally available in London when? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is Waymo generally available in London when? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria