What are the current odds for The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...?

Manifold Markets prices a robot at 65.1% as of October 29, 2026.

When does The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be... resolve?

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be... is scheduled to resolve on April 5, 2042.

TechOne-OffSpace15y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

a robot 65.1%

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 57 minutes ago

Lagging

Mar 29, 24, 1:38 PM UTCApr 5, 42, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

For this market a "humanoid robot" will be defined as having two (and only two) legs, which are used for significant travel on the surface.

To simplify judgement of what is or isn't humanoid, there is no requirement that the overall appearance be like that of the named outcome.
For example, a two-legged robot whose knees point backward and with dinner-plates for feet would still count as humanoid.