Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastWill 5 or more people who have RSVPed 'yes' not show up 62.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 12:55 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 1:53 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt46.1%
- 65-89+5.0pt29.4%
- <40-3.0pt15.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $41.4K
- 24h Vol
- $13.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-49.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Total Vol
- $16.4K
- 24h Vol
- $707.5
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Is Earth flat?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Test for wedding prop bets?
- Manifold Markets prices Will 5 or more people who have RSVPed 'yes' not show up at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Test for wedding prop bets resolve?
- Test for wedding prop bets is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.