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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?
Manifold Markets

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionEurope3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority 6%
Forecasters

7

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jun 20, 26, 10:55 AMDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority6%

Rules

Labour may or may not be about to replace Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham.

Manifold Markets
  • The major reason they're considering this because they hope it'll improve their chances in the next election.
  • This is a "Decision Market", in which you can bet on labour to win in either case - in principle, this could help Labour make that big decision!
  • Here's how it works.
  • Suppose for a moment that Burnham becomes labour leader.
  • Then there will be refunds for everyone who bet Assuming Starmer is Labour leader - whether they bet labour wins or they bet labour loses.

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Rules

Labour may or may not be about to replace Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham.

Manifold Markets
  • The major reason they're considering this because they hope it'll improve their chances in the next election.
  • This is a "Decision Market", in which you can bet on labour to win in either case - in principle, this could help Labour make that big decision!
  • Here's how it works.
  • Suppose for a moment that Burnham becomes labour leader.
  • Then there will be refunds for everyone who bet Assuming Starmer is Labour leader - whether they bet labour wins or they bet labour loses.