Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 10, 24, 2:59 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks SHA-256 encryption before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research papers or official announcements from major quantum computing companies/research institutions confirming a successful break of SHA-256.
- Resolution criteria:
- Must be a verified, reproducible break of the full SHA-256 algorithm
- Must be practically demonstrated, not just theoretical
- Must be confirmed by multiple independent sources in the cryptography community
