Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Pump (95.1%)
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, 10:21 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastPump 95.1%
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+45.1 pts
Market data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleAug 2, 26, 6:38 PMAug 7, 26, 8:04 AM
Probability Timeline
Pump95.1%
Dump4.9%
95.1%
4.9%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the price performance of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (front-month futures contract, ticker: CL=F) during the month of August 2026.
- The baseline price will be the daily closing/settlement price on August 3, 2026.
- The final comparison price will be the daily closing/settlement price on August 31, 2026.
- Pump: Resolves YES if the closing price on August 31, 2026, is strictly higher than the closing price on August 3, 2026.
- Dump: Resolves YES if the closing price on August 31, 2026, is lower than or equal to the closing price on August 3, 2026.
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $389.6K
KALSHIBrent crude oil price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $86.99+3.0pt99%
- Above $82.99+1.0pt99%
- Above $80.99+1.0pt99%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+2.0pt34.5%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+7.0pt26.6%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt12.4%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIGold price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $4555.99+66.0pt99%
- Above $4495.99+33.0pt99%
- Above $3955.9999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $169.6K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.08099%
- Above 3.80099%
- Above 3.82099%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $280.1K
- 24h Vol
- $102.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $4,600+48.4pt100%
- ↑ $4,500+64.0pt100%
- ↑ $4,400+15.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- EV commodity prices on Aug 21, 2026
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 24, 2026?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Silver price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Copper price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Natural gas price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Oil?
- Manifold Markets prices Pump at 95% as of August 8, 2026.
- When does Oil resolve?
- Oil is scheduled to resolve on August 7, 2026.
- How is Oil settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria