Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 10, 26, 9:59 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 8:58 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson?
Manifold MarketsWill Callum Turner cheat on Dua Lipa?
Manifold MarketsWill Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as Q
KalshiRules
Resolves yes if Callum turner or Aaron Taylor Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor.
- Resolves n/a Jan 1 2031 if no one is chosen.
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Post Malone: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson? resolve?
- Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Next James Bond is Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor-Johnson? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if Callum turner or Aaron Taylor Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor.