Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.8%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 6, 26, 9:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
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Manifold MarketsWill manifold markets be referenced in a Simpson's episode by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Manifold Markets announces a funding round (Series A or later) with a post-money valuation exceeding $20 million.
- Resolution requires official announcement from Manifold or verified reporting by major tech news outlets (TechCrunch, Crunchbase, PitchBook, etc.).
- The funding round must close for the valuation to count.
- The market resolves NO if Manifold Markets announced a funding round with a post-money valuation less than $20 million.
- The market resolves N/A if no funding announcement is made by Dec 31st 2026.
