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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
Manifold Markets

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

AITechOne-Off974y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Dies before AGI has been developed 14%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

75

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Sep 13, 23, 6:03 PMJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Dies before AGI has been developed14%

Rules

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000

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Rules

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Manifold Markets
  • For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks.
  • Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
  • This is a follow-up to this market:
  • https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000