Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2031 12.2%Leader of 19 outcomes
2031 12.2%Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 24, 2:05 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold Markets[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target.
- Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
