In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
One-OffSociety & Culture13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 4, 22, 1:28 AM UTCMar 11, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040.
- So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively.
- If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
- This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
- Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
