Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 2, 2026, 8:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 3, 2026, 7:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution: Impala Canada produces approximately 280,000 oz of PGM 2E concentrate in a typical year.
- This market will resolve to yes if if produces less than 100,000 oz in 2026.
- Resolution will occur early if a complete shutdown is announced and a restart deemed highly unlikely at the discretion of the question creator.
- At present the company has announced that it intends to operate through the 2026 financial year ending in July 2026, but management has also indicated that it might accelerate shutdown.
- The stated reason for shutdown is weakness in the palladium market.
- Resolution criteria
