If universal basic income is implemented, will there be mass suicide within 5 years?
One-OffSociety & CultureHealth & MedicineManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.6%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 23, 4:36 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
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Rules
Inspired by this tweet.
- "Universal basic income" is any amount of money or other items of value given to at least 90% of residents/citizens of any large jurisdiction, where the amount is sufficient for them to have a reasonable living on that income alone.
- "Large jurisdiction" means any state, country, or other defined geographically-contained entity containing at least 1 million people.
- "Mass suicide" means that the average suicide rate over the next 5 years must be at least twice the suicide rate in the 5 year period prior to UBI being implimented.
- If the UBI is ended before 5 years have elapsed (temporary inturruptions notwithstanding), that doesn't count for this market, unless a primary reason for ending it was due to increased suicide rates.
- This market remains open until the first qualifying instance of UBI, and then resoves to the result.
