What are the current odds for If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69.7% as of October 24, 2026.

If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 12:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 69.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Jun 12, 24, 8:44 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Wikipedia article for the Carrington Event

For the sake of the question, "another Carrington Event" is defined as a storm with a Dst of -1000 nT hitting the Earth.
Resolution criteria (provisional):
If I'm ever able to resolve this market after another Carrington Event happens, then this market will be resolved YES as soon as that happens.
Otherwise, this market won't resolve until there's a clear consensus about what the hypothetical result would be in the case of another Carrington Event (currently there isn't, as far as I'm aware).
In that case, at least one Manifold poll with a majority vote would have to pass before me deciding to resolve this market.