Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 53%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 25, 3:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On what days will I be productive in September?
Manifold MarketsWill I remain in Montreal past September?
Manifold MarketsOn what days will I be productive?
Manifold MarketsWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
KalshiNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiRules
I live in Toronto right now but I might move to Montreal in 2026.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if I spend at least 60 nights sleeping in Montreal between Jan 1, 2026 00:00 ET and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET. “Montreal” means any municipality on the Island of Montreal (e.g., Ville de Montréal, Westmount, Côte‑Saint‑Luc, etc.).
- Nights need not be consecutive.
- A “night” counts if I go to sleep in Montreal and wake up there (travel days count based on where I sleep).
- Resolves to YES once the 60th night is reached; otherwise resolves NO if there is no way it could resolve YES (even if I spent every future night of the year in Montreal).
Open markets
Society & CultureKALSHIWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
- Above 4.1 million94%
- Above 4.2 million91%
- Above 4.3 million-2.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46K
- 24h Vol
- $3.6K
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-3.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $10.8K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2K
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 65 million pounds84%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18.4K
- 24h Vol
- $588.5
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-1.5pt74%
- Yes+1.5pt26%
- Total Vol
- $25.1K
- 24h Vol
- $422.1
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- Significant decrease+21.0pt62.6%
- No significant difference-5.0pt29.9%
- Significant increase-11.0pt7.5%
- Total Vol
- $58.7K
KALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.8 million92%
- Above 1.9 million+1.0pt90%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $32K
- 24h Vol
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Will Harvard University rank first overall in 2027?
- Will Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
- 60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
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- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 53% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? resolve?
- I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is I live in Montreal for 60+ days in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I live in Toronto right now but I might move to Montreal in 2026.