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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC
Manifold Markets

How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC

One-OffSpace19d
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
8 or fewer 2.5%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

8

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale
May 18, 26, 4:04 PMJun 30, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

8 or fewer3%

Rules

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

Manifold Markets
  • for June 2026, UTC time.
  • If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
  • A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
  • Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
  • (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.

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Rules

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

Manifold Markets
  • for June 2026, UTC time.
  • If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
  • A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
  • Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
  • (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.