How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC

TechOne-OffSpace9d

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

8 or fewer 0.8%-0.1%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 32 minutes ago

Jun 24, 26, 10:59 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

8 or fewer1%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

for July 2026, UTC time.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.

Volume trend

$1.1k

Jul 815d of dataJul 22

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SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

$7.5K

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

$5K

Above 150: 69%

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When will Starship flight 13 happen?

$1.1K

Before 2026-02-01: 0%

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How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC

TechOne-OffSpace9d

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

8 or fewer 0.8%-0.1%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 32 minutes ago

Jun 24, 26, 10:59 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

8 or fewer1%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

for July 2026, UTC time.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.

Volume trend

$1.1k

Jul 815d of dataJul 22

Related Markets

Which company has best AI model end of August?

$25.3K

Anthropic: 94%

POLYMARKET

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?

$20K

June 30, 2027: 54%

POLYMARKET