What are the current odds for When will my laptop degrade??

Manifold Markets prices 2029 or earlier at 56.3% as of October 29, 2026.

When does When will my laptop degrade? resolve?

When will my laptop degrade? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2030.

One-OffTech3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

2029 or earlier 56.3%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Oct 26, 25, 3:01 PM UTCJan 5, 30, 2:18 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if I notice my laptop's hardware performance has degraded so much that it significantly impacts my usage.

Resolves NO if the year passes without those issues.
resolves NA if I stop using my laptop but I still judge it to be in good condition.
Not sure how I should resolve in case of theft, loss, or damage clearly unrelated to age (e.g. falling from a building).
Currently leaning towards NA, but will announce in a comment if this changes.
Examples of things that would make it resolve YES: