Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastthrough June 2024 100%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 6, 23, 8:09 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is the “It’s Sugar!” in San Francisco’s downtown a money laundering front for the Taliban?
Manifold MarketsWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsA new major league sports team comes to San Francisco by 2030
Manifold MarketsNFL: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks (Oct 11, 2026)
Robinhood (Rothera)Highest temperature in San Francisco on Oct 7, 2026?
KalshiSan Francisco vs Seattle: Touchdowns
KalshiRules
Each market resolves YES when I have contiguously lived in San Francisco until the end of that month.
- I count it as living in SF if I tell people while abroad that "I live in SF", even if I haven't been in SF for e.g. a month.
- When I trade in this market I will try to trade based on what I believe in the moment of trading (i.e. to trade in the direction of my belief).
- I currently have a lease until..
- June 2024, I think?
