This market resolved: Flight 14 (93.6%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 2:22 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Flight 120.3%
Flight 130.3%
Flight 1493.6%
Flight 153.9%
Other1.8%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the first Starship V3 flight that meets all of SpaceX's stated primary objectives.
- SpaceX is targeting the first quarter of 2026 for the debut flight of Starship V3, which will be the named outcome.
- Resolution will be based on SpaceX's official post-flight statements and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship.
- Nits Individual failures (e.g. engine failures, subsystem problems) that don't affect overall flight objectives will not cause a flight to resolve NO.
- For example, if this market was for block 1 flight 4 it would resolve YES even though the landing was off target.
