Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?
TechOne-OffSpaceCorporate Actions1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 59.4%
Forecasters
120
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 19, 26, 8:35 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Here's the context: Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X
- Resolution details:
- They don't need to receive the money within 2027.
- If a consensus of credible reporting says that Musk has initiated the process within the calendar year of 2027, then I'll leave the market open and it can resolve once the money is received (even if that stretches beyond 2027).
- It needs to cover >90% of children (<5 years old at the start of 2027) who are American citizens during the year 2027.
- It is ok if a smaller % actually receive it (e.g., the parent has to put in some work to get it).