What are the current odds for Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95.4% as of October 23, 2026.

Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 95.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Stale

Nov 21, 22, 2:46 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

For this to resolve positivly, the general trend in EA has to shift away from utilitarianism and towards some other moral philosophy.

(It can still be consequentialist.) Not every EA must renounce utilitarianism, it's ok if there's still a lot of discussion about it.
But it can't be the main "thing" that EA is known for anymore.