Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 97.3%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 23, 5:31 PM UTCMay 24, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?
Manifold MarketsWill Lex Fridman ever be elected President?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRules
Top forecasters speculate that despite verification from the site admins, @LexFridman may not be the real Lex Fridman.
- This market will not resolve until DEFINITIVE proof emerges.
- Such proof would need to originate from an official channel, such as confirmation on Lex's twitter, podcast, etc.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for But seriously, is @LexFridman the real Lex Fridman??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does But seriously, is @LexFridman the real Lex Fridman? resolve?
- But seriously, is @LexFridman the real Lex Fridman? is scheduled to resolve on May 24, 2028.
- How is But seriously, is @LexFridman the real Lex Fridman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Top forecasters speculate that despite verification from the site admins, @LexFridman may not be the real Lex Fridman.