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Are "Permanent ‘climate lockdowns’ coming, whether people like it or not."?

WeatherOne-Off4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 91.4%

Forecasters

20

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Aug 10, 23, 12:44 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com.

They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.

Open markets

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?

88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol: $274.9K
24h Vol: $267.9K

Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?

Houston+69.0pt99%
Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
Los Angeles+71.0pt75%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol: $229.5K

Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?

92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
90° to 91°-36.0pt1%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol

Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?

80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
79° or below-4.0pt3.9%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol

Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?

27°C+60.0pt93.9%
28°C-13.5pt6.1%
21°C or below-1.4pt0%

+8 more outcomes

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?

No92%
Yes-7.0pt8%

Total Vol: $77.5K
24h Vol: $33.2K

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Are "Permanent ‘climate lockdowns’ coming, whether people like it or not."??: Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Are "Permanent ‘climate lockdowns’ coming, whether people like it or not."? resolve?: Are "Permanent ‘climate lockdowns’ coming, whether people like it or not."? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
How is Are "Permanent ‘climate lockdowns’ coming, whether people like it or not."? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com.

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