Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 10, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 90.9%
Forecasters
139
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 days ago
StaleAug 21, 23, 6:28 AMDec 31, 26, 3:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes91%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · auto | High | 89% | — | $2.2K | $28.8K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 91% | — | — | — | 46 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
3.5 pts5mo
-0.0pt88.1%
+0.0pt11.9%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$246.6K
24h Vol$2.2K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.