KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 100 (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Above 9882%
Above 9696%
Above 1041%
Above 10099%
Above 10299%
Above 100Won
Before close: 99% ·
Above 96Lost
Before close: 99% ·
Above 94Lost
Before close: 99% ·
Above 90Lost
Before close: 99% ·
Above 102Lost
Before close: 99% ·
Above 98Lost
Before close: 99% ·
Above 110Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Above 104Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Above 106Lost
Before close: 1% ·
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KalshiRules
If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 100, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Ulta Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 100
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 100, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 96
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 96, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 94
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 94, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 90
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 90, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 102
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 102, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 98
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 98, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 110
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 110, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 104
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 104, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 106
- If the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 106, then the market resolves to Yes.