KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 60,000 MW (99%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 1:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 60,000 MW
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 1:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 60,500 MW1%
Above 61,500 MW50%
Above 60,000 MW99%
Above 63,000 MW1%
Above 61,000 MW0%
Above 59,000 MW82%
Above 55,000 MW99%
Above 59,500 MW78%
Above 62,500 MW1%
Above 55,500 MW0%
Above 56,000 MW99%
Above 56,500 MW98%
Above 57,000 MW0%
Above 57,500 MW0%
Above 58,000 MW0%
Above 58,500 MW0%
Above 62,000 MW0%
Above 63,500 MW0%
Above 64,000 MW0%
Above 60,000 MWWon
Above 55,000 MWLost
Above 56,000 MWLost
Above 59,500 MWLost
Above 56,500 MWLost
Above 59,000 MWLost
Above 60,500 MWLost
Above 61,500 MWLost
Above 63,000 MWLost
Above 61,000 MWLost
Above 62,500 MWLost
Above 55,500 MWLost
Above 57,000 MWLost
Above 57,500 MWLost
Above 58,000 MWLost
Above 58,500 MWLost
Above 62,000 MWLost
Above 63,500 MWLost
Above 64,000 MWLost
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 20, 2026 is above
Settles via:Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
- 55,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 20, 2026 operating day.
- Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour.
- Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.