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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.

Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, 2:49 PM

Current implied probability
Before May 16, 2026
Before May 16, 2026 1%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$6.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 100.0%

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale
May 4, 26, 6:00 PMMay 16, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before May 16, 2026
Before May 16, 2026
1%
Before May 20, 2026
Before May 20, 2026
1%
Before May 21, 2026
Before May 21, 2026
1%
Before May 22, 2026
Before May 22, 2026
1%
Before May 23, 2026
Before May 23, 2026
1%
Before Jun 3, 2026
Before Jun 3, 2026
1%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.

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Rules

If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.