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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?
Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?

Will SCOTUS uphold the federal gun ban for marijuana users?

6.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsCrime & Justice1mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 12%-6.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$13.4

Liquidity

$223.1

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 15.0%

Spread

7.1%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Oct 24, 25, 2:00 PMAug 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes12%

Rules

If the Supreme Court, in United States v.

Kalshi
  • Hemani, rules that the federal government may continue to bar marijuana users from buying or possessing firearms under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the Fifth Circuit’s decision invalidating § 922(g)(3) as applied to marijuana users, and upholds the federal prohibition on firearm possession by an “unlawful user” of a controlled substance, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026

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Rules

If the Supreme Court, in United States v.

Kalshi
  • Hemani, rules that the federal government may continue to bar marijuana users from buying or possessing firearms under 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(3), then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the Fifth Circuit’s decision invalidating § 922(g)(3) as applied to marijuana users, and upholds the federal prohibition on firearm possession by an “unlawful user” of a controlled substance, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026