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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will permitting reform become law in 2026?
Will permitting reform become law in 2026?

Will permitting reform become law in 2026?

RegulationYearlyPoliticsUS Politics6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 41%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$12.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

38.0% / 42.0%

Spread

10.5%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Dec 28, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes41%

Rules

If a permitting reform bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must do any of the following: (1) reduce the deadline for filing lawsuits against an agency action approving or denying the permitting of an energy or mineral project; (2) direct courts to set a time limit for an agency to act on a remand; (3) require courts to prioritize cases reviewing an agency permitting decision for an energy or mineral project; (4) require the Secretary of the Interior to begin reviewing lease applications for energy projects on federal land within a deadline; (5) require the Secretary of the Interior to increase the frequency of offshore oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico; (6) increase DOI's goal for permitting renewable energy projects on federal land; (7) set application timelines for renewable projects requiring a right-of-way on federal land; (8) increase the frequency of geothermal lease sales; (9) require the Secretary of the Interior to increase the frequency of offshore wind lease sale; (10) modify the requirements for a "mill site" so that mining projects can use them for ancillary activities on federal mineral and nonmineral lands; (11) require the Secretary of Energy to make a Yes or No decision on whether liquefied natural gas export applications are in the public interest within a deadline; (12) eliminate the requirement for DOE to designate National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors based on needs studies as part of the process for using the federal backstop; (13) require geothermal drill permits on federal land to be approved, denied, or deferred within some deadline; (14) clarify that a federal permit to drill for oil and gas wells is not required on nonfederal lands in circumstances in which the federal government owns less than 50% of the subsurface minerals or if the well is drilled on nonfederal land and then horizontally through federal land; (15) allow FERC to approve requests from licensees to extend the time period during which construction must commence for certain hydroelectric projects; (16) direct DOI and USDA to adopt categorical exclusions under NEPA for the exploration of geothermal resources on federal lands; (17) require the secretary of the interior to establish a streamlined permitting process for the simultaneous consideration of several phases of geothermal projects, including surface exploration, geophysical exploration, drilling, and the construction of power plants; (18) make FERC the lead agency for conducting environmental reviews of transmission projects that are subject to NEPA rather than DOE; (19) direct DOI and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to create new categorical exclusions for activities related to transmission.

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Rules

If a permitting reform bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must do any of the following: (1) reduce the deadline for filing lawsuits against an agency action approving or denying the permitting of an energy or mineral project; (2) direct courts to set a time limit for an agency to act on a remand; (3) require courts to prioritize cases reviewing an agency permitting decision for an energy or mineral project; (4) require the Secretary of the Interior to begin reviewing lease applications for energy projects on federal land within a deadline; (5) require the Secretary of the Interior to increase the frequency of offshore oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico; (6) increase DOI's goal for permitting renewable energy projects on federal land; (7) set application timelines for renewable projects requiring a right-of-way on federal land; (8) increase the frequency of geothermal lease sales; (9) require the Secretary of the Interior to increase the frequency of offshore wind lease sale; (10) modify the requirements for a "mill site" so that mining projects can use them for ancillary activities on federal mineral and nonmineral lands; (11) require the Secretary of Energy to make a Yes or No decision on whether liquefied natural gas export applications are in the public interest within a deadline; (12) eliminate the requirement for DOE to designate National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors based on needs studies as part of the process for using the federal backstop; (13) require geothermal drill permits on federal land to be approved, denied, or deferred within some deadline; (14) clarify that a federal permit to drill for oil and gas wells is not required on nonfederal lands in circumstances in which the federal government owns less than 50% of the subsurface minerals or if the well is drilled on nonfederal land and then horizontally through federal land; (15) allow FERC to approve requests from licensees to extend the time period during which construction must commence for certain hydroelectric projects; (16) direct DOI and USDA to adopt categorical exclusions under NEPA for the exploration of geothermal resources on federal lands; (17) require the secretary of the interior to establish a streamlined permitting process for the simultaneous consideration of several phases of geothermal projects, including surface exploration, geophysical exploration, drilling, and the construction of power plants; (18) make FERC the lead agency for conducting environmental reviews of transmission projects that are subject to NEPA rather than DOE; (19) direct DOI and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to create new categorical exclusions for activities related to transmission.