Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this month?

Bonds & TreasuriesMonthly19d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

4.25% or above 0%

Leader of 11 outcomes

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

- / 99.0%

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jun 1, 26, 2:00 PMJun 30, 26, 9:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

4.25% or above

4.3% or above

4.35% or above

4.4% or above

4.45% or above

4.5% or above

Selected outcome

4.25% or above0%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.24 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jun 30, 2026, or one week following Jun 30, 2026.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.29 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.34 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.39 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.44 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,867.10+2.52%

EthereumETH$1,658.07+1.88%

SolanaSOL$65.28+1.86%

Related Markets

10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

Yes: 50%

LIMITLESS

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$35

4.3%: 100%

POLYMARKET

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

$13.2

5.1% or above: 7%

KALSHI

30Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

$4.2

Above 4.95%: 69%

KALSHI

Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 12, 2026?

$1.9

4.53% to 4.55%: 14%

KALSHI

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?

Yes: 4%

POLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BNBBNB$596.82+1.84%

XRPXRP$1.12+0.74%

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.73%

HyperliquidHYPE$55.80+0.93%

ZcashZEC$424.24-1.26%

ChainlinkLINK$7.80+1.22%

Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this month?

Bonds & TreasuriesMonthly19d

KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

Current implied probability

4.25% or above 0%

Leader of 11 outcomes

Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

- / 99.0%

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jun 1, 26, 2:00 PMJun 30, 26, 9:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

4.25% or above

4.3% or above

4.35% or above

4.4% or above

4.45% or above

4.5% or above

Selected outcome

4.25% or above0%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.24 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jun 30, 2026, or one week following Jun 30, 2026.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.29 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.34 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.39 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.44 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,867.10+2.52%

EthereumETH$1,658.07+1.88%

SolanaSOL$65.28+1.86%

Related Markets

10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

Yes: 50%

LIMITLESS

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$35

4.3%: 100%

POLYMARKET