KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityGemini 57%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7
Liquidity
$7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
53.0% / 58.0%
Spread
9.4%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 4:00 AMJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gemini57%
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If Claude is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- If ChatGPT is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gemini is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.