PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityMexico 100%+38.0ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$24.5K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+42.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleJun 2, 26, 2:54 AMJul 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Switzerland68%
Scotland14%
Ivory Coast33%
Curacao2%
Tunisia2%
Iran16%
DR Congo23%
Brazil68%
Belgium57%
Spain87%
Australia44%
Uruguay18%
Iraq8%
Jordan1%
Croatia31%
Mexico92%
Egypt46%
Portugal72%
Colombia100%
Turkiye21%
Netherlands86%
New Zealand7%
Saudi Arabia6%
Senegal32%
Austria26%
Algeria20%
Panama5%
Ghana0%
South Korea25%
Czechia1%
Japan27%
Cape Verde10%
Canada67%
Morocco14%
Norway67%
Germany87%
Ecuador8%
Paraguay14%
Sweden17%
England82%
South Africa27%
France88%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Mexico
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall95% match · verified | Low | 99% | — | $299K | $3.6M | 23 days ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 100% | — | $24.5K | $0 | 22 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
FIFA World Cup Round of 16 Qualifiers
8.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Argentina (99%)
+7.0pt99%
+42.0pt99%
+19.0pt99%
+45 more outcomes
49 • Low qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$6.7M
24h Vol$299K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.1k87.4%POLYMARKETNobalthazar25d ago
POLYMARKETNobalthazar25d ago$1.7k64.0%POLYMARKETYespurplegatto27d ago
POLYMARKETYespurplegatto27d ago$4.8k62.1%POLYMARKETYespokso27d ago
POLYMARKETYespokso27d agoVolume trend
$24.5kJul 24d of dataJul 5
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This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16.
- If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
- If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.