KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Argentina (99%)
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, 1:09 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Argentina
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
92%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityArgentina 99%+7.0ptLeader of 48 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$299K
Liquidity
$3.6M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 24 days ago
StaleJan 30, 26, 3:00 PMJul 4, 26, 1:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Belgium60%
England91%
Colombia99%
Portugal69%
Ghana1%
1%
99%
1%
99%
1%
99%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Argentina
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $299K | $3.6M | 24 days ago | |
 Polymarket95% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $24.5K | $0 | 23 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
20.4 ptsClosed
+38.0pt100%
+27.4pt100%
+34.5pt100%
+45 more outcomes
45 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$5.9M
24h Vol$24.5K
POLYMARKETRules
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.1k87.4%POLYMARKETNobalthazar26d ago
POLYMARKETNobalthazar26d ago$1.7k64.0%POLYMARKETYespurplegatto27d ago
POLYMARKETYespurplegatto27d ago$4.8k62.1%POLYMARKETYespokso27d ago
POLYMARKETYespokso27d agoVolume trend
$299.0kJul 23d of dataJul 4
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If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes.
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA.
- Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
- If Korea Republic is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.