KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 84%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$41
Liquidity
$25.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
57.0% / 63.0%
Spread
10.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 1, 26, 4:00 AMJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
claude-opus-4-6-thinking84%
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If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.