KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Claude (97%)
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, 3:28 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 31, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Kimi2%
ChatGPT2%
ClaudeWon
ChatGPTLost
KimiLost
GeminiLost
DeepSeekLost
GrokLost
MiMoLost
GLMLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Claude is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:DeepSWE
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- If ChatGPT is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gemini is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Grok is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.