KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Claude (97%)
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, 3:28 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 31, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Claude 91.5%+1.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$76.4K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 39 days ago
StaleJul 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
Kimi2%
ChatGPT2%
91.5%
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Claude is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:DeepSWE
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- If ChatGPT is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gemini is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Grok is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETLoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)+79.0pt100%
- Game 1 Winner+43.0pt100%
- Game 2 Winner+42.5pt100%
+60 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.9M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz-2.0pt56%
- Alexander Zverev+7.0pt28%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Real Madrid13.3%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R14.1%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $84.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MIL+44.0pt99%
- CHC-46.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKETGenoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- Ferrari Set 2 Winner59%
- Ferrari Set 1 Winner58%
- Ferrari Match O/U 22.557%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Sanchez Jover vs Bueno
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox (Sep 7, 2026)
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
- LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs
- de Stefano vs Vedder
- MLB: Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 7, 2026)
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Coding AI this month?
- Kalshi prices Claude at 92% as of July 31, 2026.
- When does Top Coding AI this month resolve?
- Top Coding AI this month is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026.
- How is Top Coding AI this month settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Claude is the Highest Ranked DeepSWE score model on Datacurve DeepSWE on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.