Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: ChatGPT: $ 4,273 (52%)
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, 6:58 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastChatGPT: $ 4,273 52%+48.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 6:36 PMJul 28, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
DeepSeek: $ 4,72216.8%
Claude: $ 4,36831.2%
ChatGPT: $ 4,27352%
52%
31.2%
16.8%
Rules
I will use this data set:
- Gold Aug 26 (GC=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
- I have asked three LLM models to calculate the 50/50 maximum gold price estimate based on historic data.
- I asked for a statistical method and a python script.
- I could not immediately verify the methods and code, because this is a learning exercise for myself.
- But these are the three outputs I got:
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $423.8K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-5.0pt36.1%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.7%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.3%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Aug 21, 2026?
- Above $83.99+8.0pt99%
- Above $83.49+5.0pt99%
- Above $76.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $185.4K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.080+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.80099%
- Above 4.040+1.0pt99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $248.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $4,600+48.4pt100%
- ↑ $4,500+64.0pt100%
- ↑ $4,400+15.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 21, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Brent crude oil price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Silver price on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
- What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?
- Silver price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Maximum gold price in July 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices ChatGPT: $ 4,273 at 52% as of August 1, 2026.
- When does Maximum gold price in July 2026? resolve?
- Maximum gold price in July 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 28, 2026.
- How is Maximum gold price in July 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will use this data set: