KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 74° to 75° (98%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 2:19 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
72° to 73°2%
74° to 75°98%
76° to 77°1%
71° or below1%
78° to 79°1%
80° or above1%
74° to 75°Won
Before close: 98% ·
72° to 73°Lost
Before close: 2% ·
76° to 77°Lost
Before close: 1% ·
71° or belowLost
Before close: 1% ·
78° to 79°Lost
Before close: 1% ·
80° or aboveLost
Before close: 1% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Lowest temperature in San Diego on Oct 5, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in San Diego on Oct 5, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in San Francisco on October 6?
PolymarketWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 64 F on October 5, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExWill the lowest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) be below 65 F on October 5, 2026? (minimum) (min) (coldest)?
ForecastExHighest temperature in San Francisco on October 6?
PolymarketRules
If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 74° to 75°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 72° to 73°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 76° to 77°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 71° or below
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is less than 72° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 78° to 79°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 78-79° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 80° or above
- If the minimum temperature recorded at San Diego (CLISAN) for Oct 4, 2026, is greater than 79° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.