KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 5:48 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
57° or below 95.2%+48.0ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
57° or below 95.2%+48.0ptMarket quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.3K
Open interest
$3.9K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 13, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
57° or below95.2%
58° to 59°1%
60° to 61°1%
66° or above1%
62° to 63°1%
64° to 65°1%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 57° or below
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is less than 58° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 58° to 59°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 58-59° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 60° to 61°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 60-61° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 66° or above
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is greater than 65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 62° to 63°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 62-63° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 64° to 65°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Oct 12, 2026, is between 64-65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.