KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityChatGPT 3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$20.4K
Liquidity
$64K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.0%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 29, 26, 2:00 PMJul 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
ChatGPT3%
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If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.