KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Christian / Christianity (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 1:33 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Christian / Christianity99%
Election / Midterm38%
Cornyn1%
Talarico99%
Democrat99%
Socialism / Socialist99%
Trump99%
Border99%
Event does not qualify0%
Tax99%
Attorney General99%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline99%
Christian / ChristianityWon
TalaricoLost
DemocratLost
Socialism / SocialistLost
TrumpLost
BorderLost
TaxLost
Attorney GeneralLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Election / MidtermLost
CornynLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate General Election by more than 2 percentage points?
ForecastExWill Ken Paxton get 40% or more of the Asian vote in the 2026 senate election, according to the CNN exit poll?
Manifold MarketsWill James Talarico and Ken Paxton debate?
KalshiWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate General Election by more than 5 percentage points?
ForecastExTexas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Ken Paxton speaking in an official capacity.