KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Socialism / Socialist (98%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 1:56 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Socialism / Socialist98%
SAVE America Act / SAVE Act99%
Trump (3+ times)37%
Border79%
Tax Cut / Cut Tax79%
Election / Midterm80%
Democrat80%
Transgender1%
Immigrant / Immigration1%
Talarico1%
Supreme Court1%
Schumer1%
Shutdown / Shut Down60%
Event does not qualify1%
SAVE America Act / SAVE ActLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
BorderLost
Tax Cut / Cut TaxLost
Election / MidtermLost
DemocratLost
Socialism / SocialistWon
TransgenderLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
TalaricoLost
Supreme CourtLost
SchumerLost
Shutdown / Shut DownLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurMike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?
Manifold MarketsMike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiWill Mike Johnson win the Louisiana 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Mike Johnson speaking in an official capacity.