KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAt least 2.0M bpd 54%+4.0%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$795.1
Liquidity
$5.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
50.0% / 57.0%
Spread
14.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 6:00 PMJul 13, 26, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
At least 2.0M bpd54%
Volume trend
$795Jul 27d of dataJul 8
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If the Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 is at least 1.6M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is Iran’s crude oil production based on secondary sources, as shown in the OPEC crude oil production table.
- OPEC reports this figure in thousand barrels per day; for purposes of this market, [X] million barrels per day equals [X × 1,000] thousand barrels per day.
- Later revisions, corrections, or subsequent reports will not be considered.
- If the Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 is at least 1.8M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 is at least 2.0M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.