KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityJeffrey Vacirca 51.4%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$24.2
Liquidity
$8.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 4.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 1:00 AMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Sara Brenner4%
Compare venues· Kyle Diamantas
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 8% | -6pt | $24.2 | $8.3K | 12 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active88% match · verified | Low | 14% | 0pt | $90.8 | $45.2K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will Trump announce as next FDA commissioner?
9.5 pts5mo
+9.5pt26%
+1.0pt14%
-1.4pt7%
+30 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$18.4K
24h Vol$90.8
POLYMARKETRules
If Stephen Hahn is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only the first official nomination made after Issuance will be considered.
- If Brett Giroir is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sara Brenner is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Kyle Diamantas is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Mehmet Oz is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$24Jul 419d of dataJul 27
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If Stephen Hahn is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only the first official nomination made after Issuance will be considered.
- If Brett Giroir is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sara Brenner is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Kyle Diamantas is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Mehmet Oz is nominated for FDA commissioner after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029. then the market resolves to Yes.