KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Hike 25bps (98%)
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, 4:04 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Hike 25bps
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityHike 25bps 88.3%+8.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$20.4K
Liquidity
$916.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 42 days ago
StaleMar 20, 26, 2:00 PMJun 16, 26, 2:29 AM
Probability Timeline
Cut 25bps5%
Hike more than 25bps3%
Hike 25bps95%
Maintain current rate12%
Cut more than 25bps1%
4.5%
1.8%
88.3%
4.5%
0.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Hike 25bps
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $127.6K | $0 | 41 days ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 98% | — | $20.4K | $916.6 | 42 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Bank of Japan Decision in June?
0.3 ptsClosed
Resolved
25 (100%)
+1.5pt100%
-0.3pt0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
31 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$963.2K
24h Vol$127.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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POLYMARKETActive in these topics
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If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).