KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Trump (99%)
Resolved: Sep 23, 2026, 2:17 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Trump
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
16%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 23, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Trump20%
China / Chinese38%
Argentina39%
Immigrant / Immigration29%
Palestine / Palestinian / Gaza64%
Ukraine / Ukrainian0%
NATO63%
Reform29%
Climate77%
Russia / Russian71%
Iran / Iranian61%
Nuclear0%
AI / Artificial Intelligence91%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability88%
Energy38%
Event does not qualify1%
TrumpWon
China / ChineseLost
Palestine / Palestinian / GazaLost
Ukraine / UkrainianLost
NATOLost
Russia / RussianLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
EnergyLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
ClimateLost
Iran / IranianLost
ArgentinaLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
ReformLost
NuclearLost
Event does not qualifyLost
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FutuurRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Andy Burnham says the named outcome as part of official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly originally scheduled for September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United Nations
- How this is resolved Video of the official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Andy Burnham speaking in an official capacity.