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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Middle East
  3. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

3.5% (24h)One-OffMiddle East1Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 27%-0.0%
Marktqualitat

89 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

159.843,1 €

Liquidität

206.677,2 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

26.0% / 27.0%

Spread

3.9%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

-7.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

11. Mai 26, 13:1831. Juli 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes27%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.