Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: 35%+
Entschieden: 12.09.2026, 23:29
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
35%+
7 Tage vorher
—
24 Stunden vorher
99%
KonsensWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 13.09.2026, 14:55 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
35%+97%
40%+0%
45%+3%
50%+4%
55%+2%
35%+Gewonnen
40%+Verloren
45%+Verloren
50%+Verloren
55%+Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Manifold MarketsCombined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX
Manifold MarketsElon Musk Giving Shares to the Public (props)
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify.
- Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify.
