Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
December 31 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Referenzwert
December 31 11%
December 31 11%Marktqualitat
52 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
281 €
Liquidität
1005 €
Niedrige LiquiditätOpen Interest
984,1 $
Geld / Brief
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December 31Spread
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Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
14. Okt. 26, 23:01 UTC1. Feb. 27, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Größte Inhaber
Größte Inhaber werden geladen
Markttiefe · December 31
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Argon model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Argon" and be a new Gemini Argon model release designated as newer than Gemini 4 Argon (gemini-4-argon, released October 13, 2026), regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors, including decimal version increases, new whole-number generations, or newer dated builds.
- For example, a newer Argon model named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Argon, including a decimal increase such as a 4.1 or a new whole-number generation such as a Gemini 5 Argon, or a newer Argon release under a new, distinct model identifier, would qualify, while Gemini 4 Argon itself, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, price change, or thinking-level setting of it, and models whose name does not include "Argon," such as Gemini Pro, Gemini Flash, or Gemini Flash-Lite models, will not qualify.
- A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.